Social engineering may tip tight contests in TN

{ SPA VS NDA

- Ayesha Arvind

Social engineering isn't something most people would associate with election strategies in a state like Tamil Nadu, yet, with a week remaining for the elections (on April 23), itis this that may decide whether the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (head of the Secular Progressive Alliance) staves off the challenge from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (head of the National Democratic Alliance in the state).

Data point toa consistent pattern in Tamil Nadu: a significant number of constituencies decided by narrow margins, often under 5,000 votes, or roughly 2-3% of votes polled. That means even smaller caste-based parties, with limited but concentrated vote bases, can decisively tilt outcomes.

“The 2021 results underscore how narrow Tamil Nadu’s contests can be. 39 constituencies were decided by under 5,000 votes, with margins as low as 137 votes in the T Nagar seat in Chennai, where the DMK’s J Karunanithi won, even though in the previous two elections, the AAADMK had won the seat,” said a Chennai based political consultant who asked not to be named.

DMK banks on expansive ‘social coalition’

Chief minister MK Stalin's DMK has anchored its campaign in a broad, layered alliance under the SPA, combining governance messaging with targeted caste outreach.

The DMK will contest 164 seats, reinforcing its central position in the alliance. The Congress, led in the state by K Selvaperunthagai, will contest 28 seats. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thol Thirumavalavan, will contest eight seats, while the Left parties— the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)— will contest five seats each.

Other allies include the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which will contest 10 seats, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) with four, and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), with two seats each.