Trump-Modi Summit Will Straddle Key Space Between Geopolitics, Real Impact

President Donald Trump has said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington DC in February.

- Prashant Jha

Washington In symbolic terms, the timing of the visit is the message. It speaks to India's importance that the transition from a stable Democratic administration to a disruptive Republican administration has been relatively smooth so far for New Delhi.

In tangible terms, the visit should be judged on five parameters of how it meets the current moment in global geopolitics. In terms of the real political impact, it should be judged on a sixth parameter -- whether it addresses a fundamental deficit in the world view of a Trumpist ecosystem.

The five-fold test

One, does the visit send early signals of positivity about the future of the India-US strategic relationship with convergence both in Indo-Pacific and West Asia? This is likely. Both Delhi and DC remain anxious about China. Both Delhi and DC want to see a Saudi-Israel deal and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). There is also greater alignment on Ukraine, where both want an end to the war as soon as possible.

Two, are both sides able to have difficult conversations privately on trade, immigration, defense and investments and arrive at a clear road map to resolve differences, without Trump possibly blurting out embarrassing details? This is unlikely for now. A trade pact is eventually possible but will require battling domestic political lobbies. Defence acquisitions and defense co-production can be reconciled but will need give and take.

The in-principle agreement on taking illegal immigrants back is fine but the scale of the problem is still unclear. There is a tension between Trump's desire for onshoring and India's hopes for friendshoring though there is meeting ground too. To top it, Trump doesn't understand discretion, which will make the Indian system, acutely conscious of optics, uncertain of what's in store. But just an early signal that divergences can be managed will be a good start.