Why the US and Iran may exit a costly war

President Donald Trump's announcement that “very good and productive conversations” with Iran are underway has raised hopes that the long war that set the whole region on fire and sent the global economy into a tailspin could end soon.

- Sreeram Chaulia

Notwithstanding the posturing by both sides about having won the war and having compelled the other to back down, the conflict has spiralled dangerously out of control, and a corrective course was imperative.

For Trump, the surge in the price of oil from around $73 per barrel when he launched the war along with Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb-ruaty 28, to a high of $120 per barrel by late March, is unviable. The SOS call by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the war has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war, reflects the gravity of the situation.

Trump’s frustrated berating of his North Atlantic Treaty Organisa-tion (NATO) allies as “cowards” and “paper tigers” for not heeding his demand to force open the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which blocked nearly 25% of the world’s oil supplies, reveals the limitation of even the world’s most powerful military.

While the US itself no longer depends on crude oil supplies from West Asia, the overall global market prices affect the American oil industry. Rising gasoline inflation for American consumers and the sharp downward trend in American stock markets seemed to have unnerved Trump, whose Republican Party is facing an uphill battle to retain control over the US Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.