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Global oil supply to rise faster than expected: IEA

Gulf Today

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May 16, 2025

World oil supply will rise more rapidly than previously expected this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, despite a lower forecast from shale producers.

The IEA expects global supply to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, up 380,000 bpd from the previous forecast, the agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report.

Opec+ is adding more crude to the market after the group decided to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts in May and June more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply, along with concern of tariffs, helped send oil prices to a four-year low earlier this month.

Even though the IEA made a small 20,000 bpd increase to its forecast for oil demand growth this year to 740,000 bpd, the pace of growth will slow in the rest of the year to 650,000 bpd, it said, from 990,000 bpd in the first quarter.

"Signs of a slowdown in global oil demand growth may already be emerging," the IEA said, adding that economic headwinds combined with record sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are dampening demand.

Saudi Arabia is the only country with room to add barrels back to the market based on current production levels, the IEA said, after the Opec+ group agreed a second monthly accelerated output increase for June at its last meeting.

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