IMD sticks to normal rains forecast

90% chances of El Nino conditions developing in July

- SANDIP DAS

THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL Department (IMD) on Friday stuck to its forecast of a "normal" monsoon for this year, as it released the second long-range outlook shortly ahead of the annual phenomenon. The adverse impact of likely El Nino conditions will be offset by positive "Indian Ocean Dipole", a measure of Indian Ocean surface temperature, the department said.

The IMD's latest prediction of monsoon rains of 96% of the long-period average (LPA), same as it first said on April 11, allays fears of a deficit in the 4-month season (June-September). Rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA is considered "normal".

Deficient rains and its sparse distributional patterns could have adversely affected the farm sector output, fanned inflation and posed another hurdle to the long-awaited economic recovery. The rains will hit Kerala coast on June 4, the department said, three days later than the usual arrival date of June 1.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet had earlier said monsoon precipitation this year could be "below normal" at 94% of the LPA.

The IMD's prediction of normal rains was despite it seeing 90% chances of El Nino conditions developing in July and impacting August-September rains. It sees the probability of the country getting "normal" or "excess" rainfall in the range of 43-55%.