WTO: Global trade to grow sharply to 2.4% in 2025

Tariff impact has shifted to 2026

- FE BUREAU

THE WORLD TRADE Organization (WTO) on Tuesday revised its estimate for growth in world merchandise trade rather sharply to 2.4% in 2025, from the 0.9% forecast in August, citing better-than-expected performance in the first half.

Global goods trade growth came in at 4.9% in the first half of the year, as measured by the average of exports and imports. The value of world merchandise trade in current US dollar terms was up 6% on-year in the first six months of 2025 following a 2% increase in 2024.

In April, the WTO had estimated a 0.2% contraction of world merchandise trade in volume terms, when the first signs of tariff wars were emerging from the United States. While 2025 will see growth, the forecast for 2026 has been revised to 0.5% from 2.5% in April.