Estimates of Q2 growth vary from sub-7% to 8%

ECONOMISTS HAVE PROJECTED the rate of expansion of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of the current fiscal year in a wide range from sub-7% to 8%.

- KULDEEP SINGH

Official data will be released on Friday.

The real growth in Q2 of 2025-26 is expected to be nearly 7.5%, primarily due to a boost in consumption following Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate rationalisation, according to the State Bank of India (SBI) Research report released on Tuesday.

It underlined that growth is being supported by a pickup in investment activities, recovery in rural consumption, and buoyancy in services and manufacturing.

"We track 50 leading indicators across consumption and demand, agriculture, industry, services and other segments, which show acceleration in Q2 FY26 growth (as compared to Q1 FY26). The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 83% in Q2 from 70% in Q1. Based on the estimated model, we obtain a nowcast of real GDP growth of 7.5-8.0% (Gross Value Added (GVA): 8.0%) in Q2 FY26," the report said.