Be very careful what you wish for once Cyril has left the house

After a nightmarish week, the oracle has delivered four plausible scenarios for what the near future may hold

- Bhekisisa Mncube

Ah, Chief Dwasaho! My leader, I survived a tsunami this week. Finding a small, trembling window to reach the mainland took half my sleeping time.

It was the most disturbing dream I have had so far in 2025. A cruel messenger of subconscious fears, it reminded me of the political apocalypse that engulfed the “leader of society”, the ANC, on 29 May 2024.

For me, emerging unscathed from a tsunami in the dreamworld signals an imminent breakthrough. Yet, in the treacherous world of South African politics, it whispers something darker: survival will only come through rebirth — a far more advanced stage in political survival than the tired mantra of “renewal” so lazily mouthed by comrades from podiums and WhatsApp groups alike.

You see, my leader, real rebirth is messy, bloody and humbling. It is about reconnecting not with conference delegates and caterers but with street committees, stokvels, minibus taxi ranks, informal traders and, yes, the tired grandmothers queuing for social grants.

Without this brutal honesty, the ANC faces oblivion, not mere opposition. My dream, strange as it was, is your warning. My late, unlikeable father once barked at my younger sister: “Take it or leave it. If you take the leave it, ku-worse (sic).”

But let us consult the oracle of real-world data. Poll after poll whether from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) or the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR) sings the same dirge: the ANC is unmistakably on a downward spiral.

The 2024 election confirmed it: 40.18% of the national vote. In essence, the ANC lost 5,191,065 votes between 2009 and 2024. Clearly, the centre is no longer holding.