Opposition and related problems

“While Sri Lanka’s economy is bouncing back stronger than expected, a significant portion of the population— about a third—remains in poverty or is at risk of falling back into poverty. To ensure this recovery works for everyone, especially those who have been hit hardest, Sri Lanka can focus on policies that create jobs and support the poor.” The World Bank Sri Lanka Development Update April 2025

- By TISARANEE GUNASEKARA

IT is known as the Axiom of Aristotle, though Parmenides might have been the actual discoverer: nature abhors a vacuum.

So does politics.

In 2024, the NPP/JVP filled the vacuum in the Lankan oppositional space, and won the presidential and parliamentary elections, bypassing Sajith Premadasa and the SJB. Less than a year later, the NPP/JVP Government is haemorrhaging support. Between November 2024 and May 2025, the Government lost 2.3 million votes, as much of a Lankan record as the NPP’s vaulting from 3% to power in five years.

2024 was characterised by twin crises — a crisis in Government and acrisis in Opposition. The crisis in Government ebbed after Presidential election and began to re-flow in 2025. The crisis in the Opposition never ended.

In general, voters unhappy with the Government move over to the Opposition. That didn’t happen at the Local Government election of 2025. Most of the 2.3 million voters who opted not to vote for the Government also opted not to vote for the Opposition. Their abstention signified a lack of confidence in the Government and the Opposition.

If the Government manages to contain its tendency for self-harm and improve its performance, many of these disgruntled voters are likely to return to the NPP fold. But what if the Government's failures continue to be matched by the inadequacies of the Opposition?

In a recent piece in The Atlantic, columnist David Graham observed that President Trump’s growing unpopularity and the incompetence of his administration have created a favourable terrain for the opposition Democratic Party and added a rider — “But if anyone can figure out how to fumble the situation, it’s the Democratic Party.” He asked the question, “Why aren’t these boom times for America’s opposition party,” and answered by pointing out the blue party’s state of unpreparedness, its uninspiring politics, and its lacklustre leaders (The Democratic Party slides into irrelevance).