CBSL 2026 policy agenda points to steady rates: First Capital Research

Central Bank signals a cautious “hold” on policy rates in early 2026 as inflation is guided back to the 5% target by 2H 2026 Liquidity pressures to be addressed through targeted operations and SRR reforms rather than broad rate changes SRR tightening expected to lift short-term rates, while long-term yields stay anchored on fiscal consolidation and reserve build-up Stable rates and credit expansion seen supporting earnings recovery in consumer, construction and banking sectors

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THE Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) Policy Agenda for 2026 signals a vigilant but steady monetary stance in the year ahead, with policy rates likely to be kept on hold in early 2026 as inflation is gradually steered back toward the 5% target, according to a note by First Capital Research.

In its flash note analysing the CBSL’s newly unveiled agenda, First Capital Research said the Central Bank’s approach reflects confidence in the macroeconomic stability achieved over 2024-2025, while recognising emerging risks from post-cyclone supply disruptions and tightening liquidity conditions.