Politics is a numbers game and they are all adding up for Reform

POLITICS is a numbers game. Whether it’s counting votes, poll ratings, calculating budgets or seats in the House of Commons, it all comes down to numeracy.

- MARTYN BROWN

Reform UK is a case in point.

It might have only four MPs — one fewer than this time last year — but it is arguably the most influential party in British politics right now. Just look at the numbers.

Reform leads the polls on around 30%, give or take one or two percentage points...well ahead of Labour’s 20% and the Tories’ 17%.

Membership has rocketed to almost 240,000 — making it the second largest party behind Labour, which has just over 300,000 paid-up members, but that number is plummeting.

Reform’s leader Nigel Farage has a dizzying following of at least six million on social media —TikTok, X, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram — dwarfing the interest in Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.

Reform has at least 500 constituency branches, 874 council seats, two regional mayors, countless defectors — mostly ex-Tories — and several women in high-profile positions to counter what was once perceived as its Achilles heel.

It’s not just about Reform’s numbers either — the total of almost 30,000 small boat crossings so far in 2025 is growing at record pace.

More than 180,000 people have arrived in Britain after sailing the Channel in dinghies since numbers were first recorded in 2018. Voters blame both Tories and Labour, pushing them towards Reform.

Then there’s the doom-laden economic figures — growth is weak, unemployment and inflation are on the rise and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scrambling to fill a black hole of £41billion.

The numbers on all fronts are favouring Farage’s party.

The rise of Reform in the past year or so has been truly remarkable, and this will be showcased at its two-day annual conference in Birmingham next week.

Again, just look at the numbers.

Attendees were just 1,000 in 2023, then hit 4,000 last year...but are expected to smash through the 5,000 barrier this time.