Trump’s push to end Ukraine war raises fears of ‘ugly deal’

However US President Donald J. Trump’s latest push to end the war in Ukraine pans out, Europe fears the prospect of a deal — sooner or later — that will not punish or weaken Russia as its leaders had hoped, placing the continent’s security in greater jeopardy.

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Europe may well even have to accept a growing economic partnership between Washington, its traditional protector in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, and Moscow, which most European governments — and NATO itself — say is the greatest threat to European security.

Although Ukrainians and other Europeans managed to push back against parts of a 28-point US plan to end the fighting that was seen as heavily pro-Russian, any deal is still likely to carry major risks for the continent.

Yet Europe's ability to influence a deal is limited, not least because it lacks the hard power to dictate terms.

It had no representatives at talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Florida over the weekend and will only watch from afar when US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff visits Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

“I get the impression that, slowly, the awareness is sinking in that at some point there will be an ugly deal,” said Luuk van Middelaar, founding director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics think tank.

“Trump clearly wantsa deal. Whatis very uncomfortable for the Europeans... is that he wants a deal according to great-power logic: ‘We're the US, they are Russia, we are big powers.’”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Europeans will be involved in discussions about the role of NATO and the European Union (EU) in any peace settlement.