Inflation to pick up until early 2026

PHILIPPINE INFLATION is projected to accelerate until the first semester of 2026 but will likely remain within the 2-4% target, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

- Katherine K. Chan

"That increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 and also the first half of 2026 is driven or could be driven mainly by statistical effects, as well as some of the anticipated adjustments of some of the utilities that we have seen," BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja said during the BSP-ADB (Asian Development Bank) ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economic Outlook seminar on Tuesday.

However, he said inflation may moderate from the second half of 2026 as global oil prices are projected to stabilize.

"After that, we think that the relatively stable oil prices in the international markets would help contain inflation pressures moving forward," he added.

The BSP forecasts inflation to average 1.7% this year, before picking up to 3.1% in 2026. It sees inflation easing to 2.8% in 2027.

The ADB projects Philippine inflation to settle at 1.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

"Overall, inflation continued to be relatively muted. And it's not within the target; it's below the target range so far for 2025," Mr. Abenoja said.

For the first nine months, headline inflation averaged 1.7%. A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for the consumer price index in October, within the central bank's 1.4-2.2% forecast.