When development goals clash

Over the past few weeks, soaring air pollution in Delhi and other metros has forced Indian policymakers to confront an issue they often prefer to ignore: The need to focus on total emissions, not just the emission intensity of the economy, even as India seeks to accelerate gross domestic product (GDP) growth and march towards becoming a developed country by 2047.

- PROSENJIT DATTA

The distinction between total emissions and the emission intensity of the economy is crucial. India has focused on reducing emission intensity — that is, its goal has been to lower emissions per unit of economic output. The target for 2030 is to cut GDP emission intensity by 45 per cent from 2005 levels. This seems eminently doable — as it has already reduced emission intensity by around 36 percent since 2005.

The problem is that it does not actually lead to cleaner air or stop global warming. The absolute emissions are still going up — and will continue to go up until policymakers figure out a way of reducing, or at least capping, emissions, while devising policies to accelerate growth. Current studies suggest that India’s total emissions could well continue going up all the way till 2040, or even longer at current rates of GDP growth.

Balancing rapid GDP growth with the inevitable rise in emissions that high economic growth brings is an issue that all developing nations face. Rapid growth inevitably requires higher energy consumption, higher construction activity, and higher industrial production, among others.

India’s development targets for 2047 will require the economy to grow at 8 per cent per annum or more consistently over two decades. This growth is necessary to ensure that the country’s per capita income crosses the threshold the World Bank uses to classify a nation as high-income.