An uneasy truce between Iran and Israel may be the best-case scenario

The conflict in West Asia has roiled Asian economies, especially India, and added fresh strain to domestic refiners. Against this backdrop, Singapore-based energy expert Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, speaks with S Dinakar via email, shedding light on India's oil and gas options amid a tentative ceasefire in the ongoing Iran-Israel-US war. Edited excerpts:

- Vandana Hari

How do you see the West Asian situation evolving with a delicate ceasefire in place?

It's likely to be an uneasy calm, at least for the next few days—ceasefires are often fragile. Yet this one offers a sliver of cautious optimism, especially as US President Donald Trump has staked his credibility on ending the 12-day war. Should the truce collapse, a strong US response would almost certainly follow. The deeper challenge, however, is achieving lasting peace.

True rapprochement between Israel and Iran remains elusive, complicated further by the Gaza conflict that has pitted Israel against Iran-backed groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah. An interim agreement may be possible via a new US-Iran nuclear deal, but Tehran's insistence on continuing uranium enrichment will remain a major sticking point.