AI's Singular Uncertainty

It is hard to think of any historical parallel for the technological revolution promised by the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

- MIHIR S SHARMA

In both its speed and its possible scope, AI appears unprecedented.

The real issue, however, is that few technologies of the past created such uncertainty. It is true that nobody could predict what the internet would do to society. But the variation in people's expectations of AI's eventual effects is particularly wide. Here are four areas in which predictions of the impact of AI have shown this stunning divergence.

Global inequity: Many previous technologies have helped level the playing field between developing and developed nations. The information technology revolution and the internet helped those in India, for example, compete on some services with companies and people in the West. The economic surplus created by the new technology—for consumers or producers—was shared between countries.