What would happen if Khamenei falls?

The demonstrations began again in Iran last week, only two years after the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement convulsed the country for months.

- Gwynne Dyer

However, the current protests are potentially much broader than that episode because they are driven by the collapse in Iran’s currency, the rial (now 1,420,000 to the US dollar), and the explosive rise in the cost of living.The last round of demonstrations, arrests and a few executions really engaged only the more secular and better educated part of the population — half, at most. The other half may not all love the regime, but they didn’t really care much about the fate of Mahsa Amina, the Kurdish girl who was beaten to death in prison for letting too much hair show under her hijab.

The cost-of-living crisis affects everybody. Moreover, since the same crew of Islamic divines has had the final say in Iran for the past 46 years — indeed, the very same man, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been in charge since 1989 — there is no doubt about who is responsible for the current difficulties.

This creates the opportunity for a much wider coalition of forces in favour of radical change.

Maybe the demos will just peter out again in a few weeks or months as many other protests have done, but much has changed in Iran’s external environment since the last protest.