Nation faces GDP slip if House is dissolved

Tisco Economic Strategic Unit (Tisco ESU), the research arm of Tisco Financial Group, believes Thailand’s GDP could contract by 1 percentage point in the event of a dissolution of the House of Representatives.

- SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

Amid ongoing political uncertainty, Tisco ESU plans to closely monitor developments over the next two weeks and assess the country’s economic outlook under two potential scenarios.

If the House is dissolved, Thailand’s GDP is expected to decline by 1 percentage point. However, if the prime minister is replaced while the Pheu Thai Party retains its leadership, the economic impact would be smaller, with GDP projected to fall by just 0.2 percentage points, according to Tisco ESU economist Methas Rattanasorn.

"There is a higher likelihood of a cabinet reshuffle and replacement of the prime minister rather than a House dissolution," Mr Methas said. "Under this scenario, the political situation would have a limited impact on GDP."