Listed Thai companies set for earnings plunge in 1st half

Analysts expect listed companies’ earnings to drop 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 amid global trade tensions and tourism weakness, with serious headwinds expected this quarter and next.

- NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

The US tariff spikes have begun to erode corporate profitability, with many firms now grappling with higher operating costs tied to these new tax measures. Compounding the issue is a slowdown in tourism, traditionally a major economic driver, which is in its low season, placing additional pressure on earnings.

Despite the downturn, analysts noted several resilient sectors that are expected to outperform the market, such as food, telecom, power generation, healthcare and retail, as they are better positioned to weather economic challenges.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said while most downside risks have already been priced into the market, uncertainty remains high, particularly with the delayed impact of US reciprocal tariffs, which is expected to materialise in the second and third quarters.

These trade headwinds could delay Thailand's economic recovery and earnings rebound, now projected to take hold in the final quarter of the year, BLS said in a research note.

Similar to the US-China trade war of 2018-2019, the brokerage warned that companies may once again be forced to absorb rising tax costs to stay competitive, leading to compressed profit margins.