If Iran's supreme leader falls, who's next?

Chaotic attempt at regime change could end with IRGC in power. By Stuart Williams

- By Stuart Williams

Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less hardline, analysts say.

By striking targets other than nuclear or ballistic facilities, such as Iran's IRIB broadcaster, expectations have grown that Israel has goals beyond degrading Iranian atomic and missile capabilities and eyes removing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But while President Donald Trump has warned "we know" where Mr Khamenei "is hiding, what would follow his removal after over three-and-a-half decades in power is shrouded in uncertainty and risk.

European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Nato-led intervention in Libya in 2011.

They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries.

"The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada.

"Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" Mr Macron said.