Economists split over BoT rate decision

Uncertainty remains after tariff decision

- SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

Following the reduction of the US reciprocal tariff rate on Thai exports, economists are divided over the Bank of Thailand's policy rate decision at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMB Thai Bank, said he expects a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50% at the meeting.

He said the economic signals are weak, inflation is below the central bank's target range and loans are contracting — all supporting the case for a policy rate cut. Although the US reduced its tariff on Thai exports to 19% from 36%, uncertainties persist, particularly regarding transshipment tariffs.

"In the face of persistent challenges, lowering the policy rate is a reasonable step to support the economy," said Mr Amonthep, warning that Thailand could face stagnation from the fourth quarter of this year through the first quarter of 2026.