The Risk Report

WHEN FORMER PRIME MINISTER, champion of multiparty democracy, and longtime opposition leader Raila Odinga died on Oct. 15, Kenya lost the country's most consequential figure of the past generation.

- By Ian Bremmer

Odinga, left, joined forces with Kenyan President Ruto

Odinga, who served prison time for his steadfast support for democracy and political reform, played a critical role in replacing a colonial-era charter with the country's current constitution, which imposes clearer limits on presidential power. He ran for President and lost five times, but in the 2022 election, he won the majority of the vote in all but two regions, thanks to his ability to build a strong following outside his regional and Luo ethnic base.

Odinga wasn't just a star of the past. His ability to hold the loyalty of one of Kenya's largest and most diverse voting blocs; to unify the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a center-left outfit; and to organize protests—and use them to win concessions from government—kept him a central political player.