The conflicts looming over 2025

WHEN DONALD TRUMP TOOK THE OATH OF OFFICE AS President in January 2017, his first foreign policy priority was to get tough on China. The Trump 2.0 Administration will continue that work. But when he strides back into the Oval Office in January 2025, Trump will also become responsible for U.S. management of two dangerous wars, the kinds of hot foreign policy crises he was fortunate to avoid during his first term.

- IAN BREMMER

Trump has presented himself to voters as a peacemaker, the leader who will cut the deals necessary to restore order and limit the cost of U.S. involvement in foreign wars (and potential wars) for the American taxpayer. Trump's victory has now set expectations for how he'll approach Israel's confrontations with Hamas, Hezbollah, and perhaps Iran, as well as Russia's war on Ukraine. What should we expect in 2025?

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump's strongest foreign policy relationships are with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leaders of the Gulf Arab states. This is where he began his presidency eight years ago, with Saudi Arabia and Israel as his first foreign visits. The Middle East is also the site of his biggest foreign policy accomplishment. The Abraham Accords brought a normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states, and this breakthrough agreement has proved sturdy enough to withstand Israel's war in Gaza and attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The next step in this diplomatic process is to secure a landmark deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, one that would open lucrative commercial ties between the two countries and reward the Saudis with long-sought U.S.-made high-tech military hardware. Officially, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman says no deal is possible without a plan for Palestinian statehood. That's not as big an obstacle as it sounds. The prince wants the deal, and a “plan” for statehood need not leave the drawing board before Trump, Israel, and the prince can get to yes.

And if there weren't enough upheaval in the Middle East already, now Syrian rebels have ousted dictator Bashar Assad. Israel has already used the opportunity that this still evolving situation creates to strike Syrian weapons stockpiles and to make further incursions in that war-torn country.