A LIBERAL TRUMP CARD?

What a difference mere weeks have made in Canada. As the New Year came and went, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his ruling Liberals, after a decade in power, were trailing the Conservatives by 25 points—and facing electoral oblivion.

- DAVID MOSCROP

An election was due by fall. It was looking as if it might come earlier. The opposition parties in the House were working to bring down the government. Today, Canada is in the midst of that early election, but the circumstances are night and day. Trudeau is gone, replaced by former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. And it was Carney himself who called a snap election for April 28. Most surprising of all, the Liberals are back up in the polls—and now favored to win. And it’s all thanks to a brash American in the Oval Office.

The past three months have embodied the old maxim that “events, dear boy, events” can upset the odds in short order. After Donald Trump was elected in November, Canadians became nervous about what his second term might mean for the country. That it wouldn't be anything good was obvious come December when Trump bullied Trudeau, vowed sweeping tariffs, and threatened annexation to make Canada the “cherished 51st state.”

With Trump’s taunts, the pressure on the highly unpopular Trudeau to step aside only grew. Canada needed a new, full-time and focused leader, with plenty of runway to deal with Trump and his bid for hemispheric dominance. So Trudeau announced his resignation on Jan. 6, the date Trump’s win was certified.