Rapids in the Luit

Despite the BJP's remarkable victory in Assam, the election outcome poses formidable challenges for the party

- Akhil Ranjan Dutta

THE Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) along with its two regional allies won 11 of the 14 parliamentary constituencies in Assam in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP retained its 2019 tally of nine seats, its allies—the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)—won two seats. The vote percentage of the BJP increased from 36.05 per cent in 2019 to 37.43 per cent in 2024. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 46.32 per cent votes, compared to 46.76 per cent in 2019. Interestingly, the Congress, which won in three constituencies, secured 37.48 per cent votes, which is slightly higher than the BJP.

The Congress worked for opposition unity, but in a few constituencies that unity did not work. The most striking dimension of the Congress alliance was the non-partnership with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) with whom the Congress allied in the 2021 assembly elections. The alliance helped the AIUDF to register a formidable victory of 16 assembly seats in 2021. What is significant is the defeat of Badruddin Ajmal, the chief of the AIUDF, in Dhubri constituency from where he has served three consecutive terms. He was defeated by the Congress candidate, Rakibul Hussain, by a margin of more than 10 lakh votes, the highest victory margin in the country. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has claimed that with the defeat of the AIUDF, and the transfer of the party’s vote to the Congress, the later has become a complete Muslim party in the state.

The BJP adopted many strategies for electoral consolidation; the most important one was the delimitation exercise. The boundaries of the assembly and Parliamentary constituencies were re-drawn in August 2023 with the avowed objective of protecting the interests of the indigenous people. The target was the Bengali Muslim community, whose growing political assertions were projected as a threat to the interests of the indigenous people.