Not Strictly Immoral

Can Nitish Kumar once again defy anti-incumbency in Bihar's 2025 election?

- Ravi Ranjan

AS Bihar prepares for its legislative assembly elections on November 6 and 11, 2025, with results due on November 14, the state stands at a critical juncture. This high-stakes contest will determine whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a veteran socialist, secures another term and a record 10th time as chief minister or cedes power to a younger challenger, potentially Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav, who could become Bihar's youngest-ever chief minister. Kumar's nearly two-decade regime has intertwined governance with caste-based social engineering, yielding incremental progress amid persistent underdevelopment. Despite his image as a non-dynastic secular socialist, rising youth aspirations, opposition resurgence, and alliance flip-flops could fuel anti-incumbency. With 3.1 crore youth registered on the e-Shram portal for jobs—nearly the population of Kerala or Delhi—this article examines Kumar's enduring appeal, Bihar's identity politics, and the electoral dynamics shaping the 2025 polls, questioning whether “Sushasan Babu” (Mr. Good Governance) can navigate Bihar's turbulent political landscape.

Bihar has been a crucible of Indian political transformation, from Mahatma Gandhi's 1917 Champaran Satyagraha, which challenged the Britishers' indigo exploitation, to Jayaprakash Narayan's 1974 “Total Revolution” that toppled Indira Gandhi's Emergency regime. Yet, Bihar lags behind in India's developmental race, with governance deficits and caste-driven politics entrenching its image as a cautionary tale. Pre-2005, The New York Times journalist Lydia Polgreen described Bihar as “something between a punch line and a cautionary tale”, where “criminals could count on the police for protection, not prosecution... and kidnapping was one of the state's most profitable businesses”. While scholars like Jeffrey Witsoe, in his work,