Is War an Option?

The sheer uncertainty and costs of war, present levels of preparedness and the nuclear balance discount war as a rational option for India, certainly at the present stage

- Ajai Sahni

THE selective butchering of 26 Hindu men in front of the eyes of their women and children at the Baisaran Maidan near Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, is a terrible tragedy, and one that demands harsh retaliation. Much has already been written—both sensible and nonsensical—on the incident, and will not bear repetition here. Despite the enormity of the incident, it is useful to recall that the selective targeting of Hindus is far from unprecedented in the 35 years of the Pakistan-backed Islamist jihad in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). Indeed, the movement commenced with the selective targeting of Hindus in 1988, provoking the flight of about 100,000 Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley through 1989-90. Hindus and other minorities, frequently selectively targeted, have been a significant proportion of the 15,290 civilian fatalities inflicted in the state by terrorists from 1988 till April 24, 2025 (South Asia Terrorism Portal data).

Each major terrorist attack provokes large volumes of often uninformed commentary about “strategic shifts” and “changing patterns of terrorism” in J&K. But the jihad in J&K is a protracted state-sponsored conflict that has endured for over 35 years, and it has seen innumerable tactical adaptations on both sides, with security forces (SFs) and terrorists jockeying relentlessly for advantage. This has also been an age of dramatic technological transformation, and both sides have sought to harness emerging technologies. Crucially, however, on both sides, strategic objectives and postures have remained unchanged.