Winning the Global Game

The U.S. holds more cards than China. Whether we keep our strategic advantage depends on how we play our hand

- JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP describes China as the greatest external threat to American power. It is the world's largest manufacturing country, and the leading trade partner with more countries than is the United States. China is increasing its military budget, modernizing its forces in Asia and increasing its nuclear arsenal. Now, it seems to be closing the gap in artificial intelligence. The Pentagon describes China as "the pacing challenge." A serious strategy must neither underestimate nor overestimate a long-term threat.

America has many problems, but overall, in the long-term competition, I would rather be playing the American than the Chinese hand.

Imagine an entity from Mars visits Earth and sees two great powers locked in a strategic poker game. Using its X-ray vision to look into the hands of the two players, which would it bet to be ahead in 2040? Seeing that the U.S. holds seven higher-power cards in this game, it would bet on America.

One American ace is geography. While some argue that geography no longer matters in a borderless internet world, it remains important that the U.S. is surrounded by two large oceans and two friendly neighbors, while China has border disputes with half of its 14 neighbors, includ ing India, which has now surpassed China in population.