Bad vibes

The government lacks a roadmap for a sustained economic recovery beyond tinkering with childcare rebates and payment surcharges.

- Danyl McLauchlan

In the satirical war novel Catch 22, a burnt-out World War II pilot covertly moved the red string on the battle map demarcating the front line, reasoning that this would somehow cause the army to have advanced in real life so he wouldn't have to fly more missions.

It's a joke about confusing the map for the territory: our simplified models of reality are not the real world.

For most of 2024, US voters told pollsters they were angry about inflation and they'd kick out Joe Biden's government if he didn't do something about it. The Biden administration would exasperatedly reply, “We did do something! Look at the CPI. The rate of inflation was 9%, it’s now 2.9%.”

Voters were not persuaded. They felt the government was pointing to a line on the map, not the world. So they voted for Donald Trump, who vowed he would beat inflation. Core CPI is now lower than it was under Biden, though this might change as the effects of Liberation Day's tariffs kick in. But Americans are angry at Trump anyway, because their food prices are up, and expensive groceries and petrol are what most people mean by inflation.

US discourse is focused on eggs. In New Zealand, we're upset about butter. Both might seem trivial, but these are things we can point to in the world and shout, “Forget the CPI. Your map is wrong.

Prices are still high!” Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis are trying to walk a fine line between congratulating themselves on their incredible work in defeating inflation and introducing bolder policies to tackle inflation because the public is clearly not convinced by the first claim.

REBATE BOOST