KERALA'S COCONUT CONUNDRUM: FROM TREE OF LIFE TO ECONOMIC CHALLENGE

The state that once dominated India's coconut economy is losing ground as prices soar and production shifts southward

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The coconut palm, revered as the "Kalpavriksha" or tree of life in Indian tradition, has long been more than just an agricultural crop—it represents an economic lifeline for millions across southern India. Yet for Kerala, where coconuts form an integral part of the state's cultural, culinary, and dietary identity, recent months have brought unwelcome news. Coconut and coconut oil prices have surged dramatically, highlighting a troubling paradox: while global demand for coconut products continues to rise, the state that was once synonymous with India's coconut industry is steadily losing its dominance.

A Shifting Landscape

India remains one of the world's largest coconut producers, accounting for over 30% of global output and ranking third in consumption. However, the distribution of production across the country tells a story of dramatic change. In the early 1970s, Kerala commanded an impressive 65% share of India's coconut production. By 2019-20, this figure had plummeted to around 38%, and the latest 2022-23 estimates show Kerala slipping to third place behind Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

This shift represents more than mere statistics—it signals a fundamental transformation in India's coconut economy, with Kerala's historical advantage eroding despite the crop's deep cultural significance to the state.

Growing Demand, Constrained Supply

The irony of Kerala's declining fortunes becomes more pronounced when viewed against the backdrop of rising demand. Research indicates that India's demand for coconuts and copra reached 11.74 million metric tonnes in 2023, with projections showing steady growth at a compound annual growth rate of 0.39% through 2028.