GLOBAL BUSINESS BRACES FOR TRUMP 2.0

AROUND THE WORLD in 2024, voters chose change: in South Africa, France, Britain, and Japan. But nowhere does the anti-incumbent trend matter more than in the United States.

- IAN BREMMER

The global uncertainty created by an oscillation of power between left and right-from Barack Obama to Donald Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump-in the world's only military superpower has again left political and business leaders in every region of the world scrambling to spot opportunities and risk.

The 2016 election of Trump was a surprise to allies and adversaries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, but it came in the context of relative international stability. His comeback victory comes in a dramatically more unstable and dangerous-geopolitical environment. Trump must manage two wars and a U.S. relationship with China that has grown much more confrontational.

For business leaders navigating the next four years, there are critical questions that must be answered.

Are we heading into a trade war with China?

Trump's primary interest in China remains in its massive bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. Trump has said he will levy significant tariffs against Beijing and against third countries through which Chinesemanufactured goods enter the U.S. The presidentelect says this strategy will bring more production and jobs back to the U.S. He may not carry out his threat of 60% tariffs on China, but it's likely that he's not entirely bluffing. For now, it appears China will counter with a tit-for-tat response of some kind, even if it further slows China's already tepid economic growth.