Fresh produce prices look set to continue rising during 2023

The prices of most fresh produce categories, tomatoes being the exception, increased dramatically over the past year. Absa AgriBusiness discusses this and other trends in the marketplace.

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In yearly terms, the price of tomatoes remains on its downward trajectory from the high base seen in 2022.

However, the consensus is that, in general, fresh produce will see higher prices as the year progresses.

These increases are expected to be the result of a combination of factors that include unfavourable weather conditions, rolling blackouts, and civil unrest.

In the case of civil unrest, service delivery protests in Petrusburg in the Free State in early February affected labour in the area, as well as transportation of produce from it.

It is probable that high vegetable prices have contributed to the persistently high food inflation seen in South Africa over the past few months.

CABBAGES

In February, the cabbage price increased by more than 51% month-on-month (m/m), despite a 7,8% increase in volume (see Graph 1). The price was up 85,3% year-on-year (y/y) on the back of a 34,2% drop in volume.

The lower volume in yearly terms was most likely attributible to high temperatures and rolling blackouts, which affected the quality of the crop that could be marketed.

During the first week of February, cabbages traded at an average of R4 513/t across the country’s five main fresh produce markets.