China's population is falling: opportunities and risks for Africa

Lauren Johnston, senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs and Associate Professor at the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, writes about the risks and opportunities presented to South Africans as China's population drops.

- Lauren Johnston

China will no longer be the world's most populous nation. India's population will overtake it this year with an estimated population of 1,42 billion.

It's an epochal transition which speaks to other underlying demographic changes across the world, including the fact that China's population has peaked and is now falling. Meanwhile, the region with the fastest-rising population, from a current base of around 1,4 billion, is Africa.

I have researched the economics of China, and China-Africa relations, for nearly two decades. I've also specifically analysed the political economy of demographic change in China.

On the surface, China losing the 'world's most populous country' crown means nothing for African countries. However, as I outline in my new paper, the transition embodies a number of opportunities and risks for many African countries.

China has been a leading economic partner to the continent for most of this century. Demand for China's manufactured goods is consistent across the continent. It is an especially important import partner for some of Africa's resource-rich countries, such as Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. A slow-down in China's economy, or a shift away from commodity-intensive manufacturing and infrastructure construction, could especially challenge African commodity exporters whose main buyer is China, such as Angola.

So, as China's population declines and ages, there will be direct and indirect repercussions for many African countries. Here are some of the possible implications.

OPPORTUNITIES