Reshaping Global Power

ALL EYES ARE FIXED on the 2024 Lok Sabha election. But three months before that, and six months after, are two key elections in Taiwan and the United States. Taken together, the three general elections could shape geopolitics through this decade.

- Minhaz Merchant

In November 2024, Joe Biden will seek a second term in the US presidential election. In January 2024, Taiwan’s fiercely anti-China president Tsai Ing-wen would have completed her second successive term. Taiwan restricts presidents to a maximum of two terms, making Tsai ineligible to contest in 2024.

That will please China’s President Xi Jinping, now serving his precedent-breaking third term. Tsai has been the most vocal Taiwanese president in recent years to oppose reunification with China. Xi regards reunification of Taiwan with the mainland as his personal legacy. Following his three-day visit to Russia, Xi is putting in place a new Great Power template for China. The template has four elements: diplomatic, political, economic and military.

The first diplomatic coup for Beijing was mediating an entente cordiale between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The two Middle East rivals had cut diplomatic relations in 2013 following tit for tat sectarian attacks.

The rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, choreographed by Xi in Beijing to wide global publicity, not only gives China a toehold in the Middle East’s febrile politics but reduces Washington’s influence as the sole power broker in the region. With Russia’s military deeply entrenched in Syria, the China-Russia axis poses a significant future challenge to the US-led West in a volatile geography.

The second key agenda for Xi is economic. He knows that the era of high Chinese growth is over. The greying of China, with the average Chinese now nearly 40 years old, will lower productivity and increase the fiscal burden on pensions.