PERMISSION TO FLY

The number of stolen bases continues to decline, but success rates are the highest they’ve ever been

- KYLE GLASER

Just a decade ago, stolen bases were still a somewhat prominent part of the modern game.

Today the landscape has changed. With the rise and spread of analytics, the number of stolen base attempts has declined precipitously.

The rate of steal attempts in April this year was the lowest for any April of the expansion era, which began in 1961. Analytically inclined front offices, citing run expectancy matrices and other data, have largely concluded the risk of getting thrown out isn’t worth the potential benefit in most cases.

The calculation appears to be changing. Ironically, many of the analytical trends driving today’s game have made stealing bases a more successful proposition than ever.

Runners were successful on 76.7% of stolen base attempts through May 18, which was on pace to become an all-time high.

There are many factors behind the uptick in success rates, but three are most commonly cited are: pitchers are no longer as adept at holding runners, shifted defenses have a harder time getting to the bag in time and catcher arm strength being deemphasized in favor of pitch-framing skills.

The most important of those is the pitcher. Whether one views stealing bases as a math equation, an art form or a combination of the two, how quick the pitcher is to the plate is the starting point for it all.