BRACING FOR ELECTORAL WAR

On the face of it, the Assam assembly election is a three-sided contest, but there is more to it than meets the eye

- Kaushik Deka

On the surface, the assembly election in Assam, to be conducted in three phases—on March 27, April 1 and April 6—looks like a three-cornered contest. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-Asom Gana Parishad (BJPAGP) alliance is pitted against a grand alliance of eight parties—the Congress, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), the Anchalik Gana Morcha, the CPI, the CPI(M), the CPI(ML) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal—and a smaller potential alliance of two new parties, the Raijor Dal (RD) and the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). But there are all sorts of undercurrents that will determine the final winner on May 2.

Take the case of the Congress-led alliance. They tried hard to avoid a split in the Opposition votes, which is why Congress leaders kept trying, even after repeated rebuffs, to persuade the RD and AJP to join and strengthen the Opposition grand alliance. If they had joined the alliance, it would have resulted in a bipolar fight between the BJP-led alliance and the Congress-led one. The urgency to consolidate all non-BJP votes can be understood from the fact that in 2016, Congress won just 26 seats despite having a 31 per cent vote share, higher than the BJP’s share of 30 per cent. The alliance between the BJP, the AGP, and the BPF had consolidated all anti-Congress votes, giving the BJP 60 seats, the AGP 14 seats, and the BPF all 12 seats from BTAD (Bodoland Territorial Area Districts) areas.