Commodity boom: have we reached the peak?

They have been a boon for some and a burden for others, but no one has been left untouched by the soaring commodity prices of the past year. What does 2022 hold, and who will be the winners and the losers? Lindi Botha spoke to two agricultural market experts to gauge future trends.

- Lindi Botha

FAST FACTS

Commodity prices worldwide reached all-time highs in 2021.

At the same time, a rapid rise in input costs, most notably energy prices, have reduced these gains.

Commodity prices are expected to remain stagnant in 2022.

Commodity prices have seen record highs during 2021 as supply chain disruptions, demand shifts, weather, and input costs all compounded to send indices soaring. While the World Bank’s Agricultural Price Index stabilised during the third quarter of 2021, it remains 25% higher than a year ago, and most subgroups exceed pre-pandemic levels by a wide margin.

“A key factor underpinning commodity price gains are significant stock drawdowns,” says Dr Tracy Davids, manager of commodity markets and foresight at the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy (BFAP).

“Maize stocks declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2020/21, following a modest 0,8% growth in production. And despite a 7% increase year-on-year in soya bean production, supported by strong harvests in the US and Brazil, record consumption resulted in a second consecutive year of stock reduction.

“The world price for canola shot up by 78% over the past year on the back of declining global supplies of oilseeds and stock levels plummeting to multi-year lows. The global price for canola currently exceeds previous record levels from 2011.”