TIME TO PLOT GROWTH

Two years of the Covid-19 pandemic has no doubt severely eroded India’s real GDP but there are some green shoots that are reinforcing faster recovery

- Ashish Sinha

The GDP in Q1 of FY22 is estimated at Rs 32.38 lakh crore, as against Rs 26.95 lakh crore in Q1 of FY21, showing a growth of 20.1 per cent

HOW’S THE ECONOMY FARING? That’s the question topmost in everyone’s mind as India, experiencing a lull in the raging Covid pandemic, tries to ease curbs to facilitate the revival of economic activity. Let’s hear what experts and data points have to say. To being with, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July forecast, came out with its revised estimate of India’s deficit and debt relative to GDP for FY22. It pegged the general government fiscal deficit to GDP ratio at (-) 11.3 per cent, which is, in fact, the third-highest among major advanced and emerging market economies, after the US and the UK. While that may be worrisome, there are a number of green shoots that point to a robust and sustainable recovery going forward.

The recently launched National Monetisation Pipeline, which is estimated to garner Rs 6 lakh crore over FY22 to FY25, may contribute Rs 88,000 crore in FY22, but that comes with a cautionary note. “The aggregate, as well as a year on-year value under NMP, is only an indicative value. The actual realization for public assets may depend on the timing, transaction structuring, investor interest, etc.,” a senior official said.