INCOMPLETE VIEW

Injury risk for college pitchers is determined by more than pitch counts

- J.J. COOPER

Paul Skenes threw 124 pitches on his way to a complete-game win in Louisiana State's regional opener. If you surveyed social media during the game, you might have thought LSU coach Jay Johnson and pitching coach Wes Johnson had taken a hacksaw to Skenes' elbow sometime during the ninth inning.

Skenes is universally viewed as the top pitching prospect in the 2023 draft. So what were Johnson and Johnson doing taking such a big risk by letting him work so deep in a game?

No MLB pitcher had thrown 124 pitches in a game this year. And only Miles Mikolas did it last year.

Case closed. The evidence is clear: LSU is playing with fire.

MLB teams have learned to never let a pitcher throw so many pitches, so why haven't colleges followed suit?

Actually, let's take a deeper look. I asked a biomechanist, a pro pitching coordinator and an MLB front office official how concerned they were about Skenes' outing. None of them was particularly worried. They noted that he was clearly stretched out, having worked 115-plus pitch outings multiple times in the weeks leading up to his 124pitch outing.

And they pointed out he was working on extra rest. Skenes had not pitched in eight days when he took the mound in the regional. He also was going to have eight days before he pitched again in LSU's super regional.

And the in-game markers of pitching fatigue, at least from what we have publicly, do not appear to have shown up. In the first three innings of his regional start, Skenes' fastball averaged 99.2 mph. In his final three innings it averaged 99.1. His velocity was unchanged.

LSU had additional information. Teams now look at extension and release points as more granular details to indicate when to pull a tiring pitcher. We don't have that info publicly, but Wes Johnson, the Twins' pitching coach before he came to LSU, did.