'TRANSLATION BETWEEN CHANGE IN WEATHER AND DAMAGES IS NOT LINEAR’

Attribution science has grown leaps and bounds to trace the link between climate change and weather events. But this link does not extend to estimating loss and damages, FRIEDERIKE OTTO, climate scientist at Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, tells AKSHIT SANGOMLA. Excerpts:

- AKSHIT SANGOMLA

How has weather attribution grown as a scientific discipline?

Weather attribution science has come a long way in the last five years. There are emerging best practice methodologies now. Through that we now know, without having to do a new study, that every heatwave has been made more likely and more intense because of climate change. We also know that in most cases of heavy rainfall events there is a role of climate change, though that is smaller than in heatwaves. For droughts there are some hotspots where we do see the fingerprints of climate change. These are southern Africa, the Mediterranean region and parts of South America. There are also many droughts that cause huge damage and food insecurity even though they do not have a climate change signal. Highlighting that vulnerability and exposure plays a crucial role.

What are some open questions in weather attribution science?