Voters set to ditch Labour for good: poll

ANEW poll projects that fewer than 40% of 2024 Labour voters in Wales plan to stay loyal to the party at the Senedd election this May, with many indicating they have no intention of returning to the in-power party.

- RUTH MOSALSKI Political editor [e-mail]

HE Senedd election in May is widely being written as a twohorse race between Reform and Plaid Cymru.

Polls suggest the leader of the party of Wales, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is the favourite to become Wales’ next First Minister.

Leading electoral expert John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a familiar face on television screens on polling days, told the Western Mail in an exclusive interview that while these might be the headline findings from the latest polls, there were still significant uncertainties three months before Wales votes on Thursday, May 7.

Prof Curtice had warnings for all parties to be careful about taking anything for granted. He said:

lH We cannot rule out there being a Labour First Minister after May’s election;

IE Plaid’s path to being the largest party is less certain than the SNP’s in Scotland;

lM The Lib Dems and Greens may still be “on a hiding to nothing”;

EH Labour's hopes in Wales hang on Keir Starmer improving his party's popularity at Westminster; and

@ Even if Reform wins the most seats, they're unlikely to be in government.

‘The latest poll suggests Plaid is the front runner with Reform in second place and Labour slipping to fourth.

Prof Curtice, speaking before that poll was released, said that while there were plenty of signs Welsh polls are on the right track, the infrequency of Welsh-specific polls meant they needed to be treated with caution.

Prof Curtice said: “Let’s just take the GB-wide polls which are absolutely and utterly plentiful.

“If indeed Labour support has halved across the UK as a whole, since last year it is basically inevitable that Labour's vote in Wales is going to roughly do that. In general, Labour's vote is going down more in places that they currently hold.