Lebanon 'lessfire' may be the blueprint for ceasefire in Gaza

Israel still fires on Lebanon almost a year after a ceasefire. Some predict it will be the same for Gaza.

- Abby Sewell, of Associated Press, reports

> Israel violated the ceasefire with Lebanon by launching more than 10 airstrikes on the town of al-Musaylih in southern Lebanon, on October 11

(Anadolu)

AS A TENUOUS ceasefire took hold in Gaza this month, Israel launched more airstrikes on southern Lebanon – 11 months into a ceasefire there.

The bombardment of a construction equipment business killed a Syrian passerby, wounded seven people including two women, and destroyed millions of dollars' worth of bulldozers and excavators.

The October 11 strikes would be an anomaly in most countries not at war. But near-daily Israeli attacks have become the new normal in Lebanon, nearly a year after a US-brokered truce halted the latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Some see a likely blueprint for the Gaza ceasefire, with ongoing but lower-intensity conflicts. On Sunday, Israel struck Gaza after it said Hamas fired at its troops, in the first major test of the US-brokered truce.

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the Lebanon scenario as a "lessfire" rather than a ceasefire.

Lebanon "could well serve as the model for Gaza, essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict," she said.

The latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict began the day after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza. The militant group Hezbollah, largely based in southern Lebanon, began firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas and the Palestinians.

Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling. The low-level conflict escalated into full-scale war in September 2024.