Trump or Harris? Putin's preference isn't clear cut

Kremlin's best-case scenario might actually be a contested election

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Former U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in 2018. The assessment of how beneficial Trump's term was for Moscow is mixed. He issued a slew of sanctions against Russian oligarchs and enterprises.

Back in 2016, it was evident that Vladimir Putin was Team Trump. Top Kremlin officials cracked open champagne bottles in the early hours of Nov. 9 as the businessmanturned-politician emerged as the surprise victor in the U.S. election.

When it comes to determining where the Russian leader stands today, there is no easy answer. U.S. intelligence seems certain he wants Donald Trump back in the White House. Putin, meanwhile is revelling in making cryptic comments that often double as needling observations: such as when he praised Joe Biden for his age and experience, or now Kamala Harris for her “infectious” laughter.

The view that has crystallized in Moscow, according to five people familiar with the latest thinking in the Kremlin, is that there really isn’t much reason to raise a glass this time around if Trump returns.

If the Kremlin could have picked their ideal scenario, it would have been another Biden term because he was more predictable and easier to read, two of the people said. That means that if there were any efforts toward ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, it would be simpler with Biden than with someone with a history of tearing up deals.

Russia doesn’t care so much who wins, but that doesn’t mean it’s indifferent to the outcome. For example, if Harris were to win narrowly, and Trump contested the result, the ensuing paralysis would likely be welcome news.