Byelection results signal looming Liberal wipeout

As of Tuesday, with all polls reporting but at least one recount possible, the NDP won Winnipeg's Elmwood-Transcona.

- MATT GURNEY

That longtime NDP seat will stay orange, despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives. Meanwhile, in Montreal's LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, the Bloc has squeaked out a tiny win over (in something of a surprise) a close Liberal challenge and a more distant NDP candidate in third. While the closer-than-expected finish might serve as something of a balm for Liberals, the top-line result is grim. This is yet another once (mostly) safe seat lost by Justin Trudeau.

The Winnipeg riding staying with the NDP was foretold, and will probably be little remarked upon (the only particularly interesting story there was the growth in the Conservative vote since 2021 - the party is clearly poised to push hard against less-secure NDP holdings come the next election). The Liberals losing LaSalle, though, is a defeat akin to their loss of TorontoSt. Paul's in June. That earlier loss seemed to genuinely shock many Liberals; the defeat in LaSalle, in contrast, had been gently telegraphed as probable by the party for the last two weeks. Whether the sudden shock or the long wait was more painful is up to them to decide for themselves.