WELFARE DELIVERY, MODI FACTOR PROPELLING NDA IN BIHAR POLLS

The Bihar elections opened with opposition parties confident that Nitish Kumar's long incumbency and public fatigue courtesy his 20 years of rule would translate into a difficult contest for the NDA. In the early phase of campaigning, this seemed plausible. The same feeling was also shared by top National Democratic Alliance leaders while interacting with journalists privately, including by two senior BJP Union Ministers, who spoke to this correspondent before and after the poll schedule was announced.

- ABHINANDAN MISHRA

In interviews with voters across rural and semi-urban regions in Patna, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, and Samastipur districts, residents expressed a familiar sentiment: 20 years is a long time under the same leadership. The high-decibel sustained campaign of Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor too was described as a factor that would hurt the NDA, given the fact that forward community voters, upset with BJP's backward caste appeasement, were reportedly weighing the option to vote for Jan Suraaj in this election.

But the ground began to shift quietly in October. The onetime Rs 10,000 livelihood assistance released under the Mukhyamantri Nari Shakti Yojana under the Rs 2 lakh per beneficiary scheme, routed through JEEVIKA self-help groups, landed directly into women's bank accounts. These were not promises. They were transactions already completed, confirmed through account messages, passbooks, and group meetings.

By early October, an estimated 1.21 crore women had received this tranche; the second disbursal happened on Friday after the first phase had happened.

Independent analysis confirmed that this assistance went to every eligible woman, even in seats considered "non-NDA".

Because women in Bihar vote in large numbers and share political judgement through tightly knit SHG (self-help group) networks, the transfer appears to have created a stabilizing effect for the ruling coalition, according to campaign tracking by both NDA and opposition strategists. The conversation in many homes, according to focus group assessments conducted by political outfits, moved from whether change was needed to whether continuity would guarantee the continuation of such direct support.