Pakistan's Economic and Security Failures Amplify Nuclear Risks

The possibility of collusion from within the establishment in Pakistan creates a grave risk of Pakistani terrorist organisations gaining access to nuclear weapons, components or technical knowhow.

- Maj General Deepak Mehra (Retd) New Delhi

Over the last few years, Pakistan has been in the grip of terrorist violence, with increasingly brazen attacks by terrorists on national assets and security forces, with the latest such instance being the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Baloch Liberation Army on March 11, 2025. Meanwhile, with soaring inflation, mounting external debt and rock-bottom foreign reserves, Pakistan's economy is in dire straits. Notwithstanding all this, one front where Pakistan is relentlessly gaining ground and progressing well is in the field of enhancing its nuclear arsenal on the pretext of deterrence. In an increasingly dangerous security environment, fragile economic situation and weak governance, the security of these strategic assets may prove to be a liability to the very survival of the military-controlled state that is Pakistan.

Pakistan's Growing Arsenal and Escalating Expenditure Pakistan's nuclear expansion persists unabated. The country has been aggressively producing highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for its nuclear program and stockpiling fissile material. As per a report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, in September 2023, Pakistan had approximately 170 nuclear warheads, which could increase to over 200 by the end of 2025 at the current growth rate of nuclear warheads in Pakistan seems much higher and healthier than that of its economy at 2.4%. As per varying estimates, Pakistan's annual expenditure on maintaining its nuclear arsenal ranges from approximately $1 billion to $2.2 billion. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) reported that in 2019, Pakistan allocated around $1 billion to its nuclear weapons program, equating to roughly $1,924 spent every minute. Along with stockpiling nuclear weapons, Pakistan, to maintain a credible deterrence, has to sustain a diverse array of delivery systems to include: