Deterrence is not a fixity

Deterrence is not simply the use of brute force. It is the expression of coercive credibility. It is defined less by the scale of destruction and more by the adversary's expectation of future costs. As Thomas Schelling memorably put it, deterrence is the 'art of convincing someone that the cost of their actions will outweigh the benefits.'

- ADITYA SINHA & PARAS RATNA

Operation Sindoor marks a doctrinal shift in India's national security policy. It is a fundamental reassessment of how India seeks to counter cross-border terrorism in a nuclearised environment.

The strikes on terrorist facilities within Pakistan reflect a move from passive restraint to active enforcement of punitive justice. The operation was expected rather than surprising, and the strategic message lay partly in that very expectation.

For decades, India pursued a policy of strategic restraint. This approach to conflict management emphasized diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally, and the maintenance of moral high ground. Despite India's conventional military superiority, it allowed Pakistan's military jihadi complex to operate with relative impunity.

From the 1980s onward, Pakistan institutionalized proxy terrorism under the cover of nuclear deterrence, outsourcing violence to nonstate actors. This low-cost, deniable strategy became known as "bleeding India through a thousand cuts".

Yet despite the persistent use of this approach, India's responses ranging from dossier diplomacy to strong official statements rarely imposed tangible cost on Rawalpindi.

After 2016, India began to move away from strategic restraint. The surgical strikes after Uri and air strikes following Balakot in 2019 signalled a shift toward imposing cost through retaliation. This marked a turn to deterrence, aimed at demonstrating both capability and intent.

Operation Sindoor extended it further. It was anticipated and carefully executed, targeting terrorist camps while initially avoiding military assets. Thereby, reinforcing the message that the cross border punitive action now lies at the core of India's counterterrorism strategy.