Xi seeks to capitalize on trade turbulence in Southeast Asia states caught in tariff bind

His visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia aims to make the case for Beijing's reliability

- Philip Wen

BANGKOK - Chinese President Xi Jinping embarks on his first overseas trip of the year with an opportunity to make a case that Beijing is the dependable major power its closest neighbors can rely on amid an escalating trade war with the United States.

Doing so effectively, however, will require a touch of deft diplomacy, and recognition that its trading partners are caught in a bind, seeking to negotiate with Washington to salvage their trade-exposed economies.

Mr. Xi's three-nation Southeast Asia visit, which kicks off in Vietnam on April 14 before moving on to Malaysia and Cambodia, has taken on an altered complexion with the Trump administration abruptly declaring on April 9 a 90-day pause on sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs that had been especially punishing for Southeast Asian countries.

The temporary reprieve excludes China, saddled with Trump tariffs of 145 percent and counting.

Despite that isolation, analysts say, Beijing should refrain from leveraging its economic heft to pressure its junior trading partners into overt displays of solidarity or other forms of overreach while the Chinese President is in town.

"We depend both on China as an import market first and for the US as an export market, so we don't want to be seen as displeasing either Beijing or Washington," said Dr. Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow in the Vietnam Studies programme at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.

"They (China) must know that you cannot really use brute power for your neighbors to come into your (orbit)," he added.

Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia have all been beneficiaries of multinational companies seeking to derisk their supply chains away from China since Mr. Donald Trump's first term as president. But that contributed to a widened trade surplus with the US that has landed them in the cross hairs of the US leader, as well as accusations of the transshipment of Chinese goods via Southeast Asia to evade US trade restrictions.