When Being the China Alternative Is Not Enough

Cordial relations with Beijing and longstanding US ties may no longer be sufficient for supply chains to survive.

- Daniel Moss

Being "not China" may have been the easy part. A big tout for manufacturing in several important Asian economies was that they enjoyed cordial relations with Beijing and solid historical ties to the US. Leaders did not mind taking a few rhetorical shots at America, if it was convenient for domestic politics, but professed no appetite for choosing between the two superpowers. This sort of opportunistic fudge is likely to get harder—and the consequences of a deeper transformation of trading arrangements stand to be profound.

Call it friendshoring or China+1, this was never an exit from the Asian giant but a hedging of bets. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's pitch to a conference in 2024 was illustrative: "I offer our nation as the most neutral and non-aligned location," he proclaimed. And Vietnam officials deserve a medal for the number of times I have heard the nation proclaimed a trade-war victor.

Behind all this credential burnishing lurked hard questions: Was America's desire to curb dependence on supply chains anchored in China a passing phase or part of a more lasting change?