What are the prospects for a China-US 'grand bargain'?

The thunder was loud, but the rain is light.

- Yew Lun Tian

This Chinese idiomatic expression frames how many in China remember the way US President Donald Trump waged his trade war against China in 2025.

When Mr Trump returned to office in January, he shocked the world with his audacious Liberation Day tariffs. An exhausting ding-dong with the US saw tariffs on Chinese goods surging, stalling and eventually shelved. Even at their peak, the apocalyptic triple-digit levies lasted barely a month.

At the dawn of 2026, bilateral restraint appears likely, since Washington is keen to make Mr Trump’s planned April visit to China happen.

The signs are clear. On Dec 23, the US announced fresh tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports, but postponed their implementation until June 2027.

Behind the scenes, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has been tasked with ensuring that no government department does anything to upset the tenuous detente.

The shift was also echoed in the tone of US State Secretary Marco Rubio at his year-end press conference, where he recast China as a powerful constant rather than an existential rival.